All Tools

Bayes & Expected Value Workbench

Interactive tools for probability, Bayesian reasoning, expected value, calibration, and optimization.

Parameters

10%
90%
85%
1

Result

40.0%

Posterior probability after 1 positive observation

Prior

10%

Update factor

4.0×

Belief Update Curve

n=0n=1n=2n=3n=4n=5n=6n=70%25%50%75%100%
  • Posterior P(H|E)
  • Prior

Bayes' Theorem: P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / [P(E|H)·P(H) + P(E|¬H)·P(¬H)]