Why I made this
I'm Aalay, a high school student from Sammamish, Washington. I like math, finance, basketball, and piano, and at some point I realized that the same kinds of models show up in all of those things. Growth curves describe tumors and product adoption. Spectral decomposition describes ragas and overtones. Expected value describes shot selection and portfolio allocation.
Pattern is my attempt to take that idea seriously. Each investigation starts with a question I couldn't answer by Googling, pulls a public dataset, applies a model, and shows the work. Some of the models hold up better than others, and I try to be upfront about that in the limitations sections.
About me
Aalay Shah
High school researcher from Sammamish, Washington. I play basketball and piano, and I plan to study applied mathematics. My work has appeared in the National High School Journal of Science and the Oxford Journal of Student Scholarship.
Papers I've published
- "ChatGPT as a Real-Time Sector Rotation Predictor: Accuracy, Bias, and Accessibility in Earnings-Driven Market Movements"National High School Journal of Science
- "Quantifying the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Events on Stock Market Behavior Using Time-Series Deviation Modeling"Oxford Journal of Student Scholarship, Vol. 8, Issue 2 (June 2026)
How I try to do this
Three things I hold myself to.
Use real data, and link to it
Every dataset links to a public source you can check yourself. When data is missing, I say so rather than filling the gap.
Show the method
Every investigation includes the method, the data dictionary, and enough detail that someone with the source data could redo the analysis from scratch.
Write the limitations
Every investigation has a limitations section. Good analysis is honest about what the data does not show, and null results get published here too.
Where the data comes from
Government databases, university repositories, league APIs, and peer-reviewed open datasets. Where a dataset uses synthetic or simulated values, it's labeled as such.
SEC EDGAR
Full-text earnings filings
Federal Reserve (FRED)
Macroeconomic time series
JHU CSSE
COVID-19 outbreak data
NBA Stats API
Basketball shot & tracking data
Basketball Reference
Historical NBA statistics
Compmusic / UPF
Hindustani raga recordings
Univ. of Iowa EMS
Instrumental sound recordings
Benzekry et al. (2014)
Tumor growth datasets (PLOS CB)
Philadelphia Fed SPF
Economic forecast accuracy data
Good Judgment Project
Probabilistic forecasting data