Investigations
These are working notes, not peer-reviewed papers. Each one starts with a concrete question, pulls from a public dataset, analyzes the data, and shows the math behind the answer.
The Three-Point Revolution and the Geometry of Efficient Offense
Expected Value, Shot Selection Optimization, and the Mathematics of Spacing
Why Three-Point Shooting Changed Basketball
How did the rise of three-point shooting alter the spatial geometry and expected-value landscape of NBA offense, and what mathematical threshold drove its adoption?
Optimizing Shot Selection Using Expected Value
Across the full shot chart, what spatial regions and shot types maximize expected points per possession, and how does the efficient frontier of shot selection vary by player skill profile?
The Mathematics of Spacing
How does the spatial distribution of offensive players affect shot quality and scoring efficiency, and can convex hull area and entropy measures quantify offensive spacing?
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