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Decision Science·CSV·Updated 2023-06
Good Judgment Project Forecasting Dataset
Aggregated probabilistic forecast data from the Good Judgment Project (GJP), a DARPA-sponsored geopolitical forecasting tournament. Includes resolution rates, Brier scores, and calibration statistics for ~500 questions across 4 years.
Rows
487,000
Columns
7
Size
22 MB
Downloads
2,340
License
Academic research license
ForecastingCalibrationBrier ScoreCognitive BiasSuperforecasting
Source
Good Judgment, Inc. — published in Tetlock & Mellers (2014), PSPB
License: Academic research license
https://www.gjopen.comKnown Limitations
Forecasters are self-selected volunteers. Questions are geopolitical; calibration may not generalize. Some questions have low resolution counts, making calibration statistics noisy.